Is There Any Doubt That the Next Economic Cycle is Gathering Steam

Commentary on how the Market and the Economy has Repetitive Cycles

We have often repeated that the next economic cycle is upon us, and that the old cycle has run its course. 

A Technical Indicator

On January 3, 2014,  On Friday, the TSX-Venture composite index broke above the 200 day moving average for the first time since May 2011. 

There are many junior stocks that may never recover, but the nes with good value, are to be seriously considered now.

 A Commentator Notes

Dec 11 2013 David Ellison’s comments of a few weeks ago when he stated in his conclusions from his recent bank company visits,

  1. Credit conditions are continuing to improve,
  2. Loans going on the books the last 3-5 years are the best quality in 25-30 years,
  3. Loan demand is slowly picking up – starting to see competition,
  4. Cost cutting/efficiencies are growing mgt. focus  – 2-3 years to work through,
  5. Improving fee income another growing focus of mgt. – loan demand will help this effort,
  6. Balance sheets are liquid with much improved liability structures – I see some of the best balance sheets of my 30 year career,
  7. M&A activity expected to increase as regulatory process clears up – everyone is looking,
  8. Dividends and buybacks are expected to increase,
  9. Valuations (P/E and PR/BK) are around the average historical ranges.” 

Whether or not you agree with the above comments, it is clear that the economy has started to gain momentum. The signs abound. It looks like 2014 will be a good year.

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By Larry Cyna

Mr. Cyna is an accomplished investor in the Canadian public markets for over 20 years, and has managed significant portfolios. He is a financing specialist for private and public companies, and has expertise in real estate and debt obligations. He has assisted private companies accessing the public markets, has been a founding director of public companies and continues as a strategic consultant to selected clientele. He is and has been a director, a senior officer and on the Advisory Board of a number of TSX and TSXV public companies in the mining, resource, technology and telecommunications sectors, and the Founding Director of two CPC’s with qualifying transactions in mining and minerals. He was an honorary director of the Rotman School of Management MBA IMC program, has completed the Canadian Securities Institute Canadian Securities Course & Institute Conduct and Practices Handbook Course, was a former Manager under contract to an Investment Manager at BMO Nesbitt Burns, a roster mediator under the Ontario Mandatory Mediation Program, Toronto, a member of the Institute of Corporate Directors of Ontario, a member of the Upper Canada Dispute Resolution Group, and the Ontario Bar Association, Alternate Dispute Resolution section. He obtained his designation as a Chartered Accountant in Ontario in 1971 and was the recipient of the Founder’s Prize for academic achievement together with a cash reward. He became a CPA in the State of Illinois, USA in 1999 under IQEX with a grade of 92%. He is a Member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Ontario and the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants. He holds certificates in Advanced ADR & in Civil Justice in Ontario, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, certificate in Dispute Resolution from the Ontario Institute of Chartered Accountants. Previous accomplishments are Manager of Cymor Risk Consultants LP specializing in Risk Management Assessment; CEO of Cyna & Associates specializing in mediation and ADR; Founder & Senior Partner of Cyna & Co, Chartered Accountants, a fully licensed and accredited public accountancy firm with international affiliations; and was a partner in a large public accountancy firm. Mr. Cyna is well known in the Canadian Investing community. He is invited to, and attends presentations given by public companies usually 3 or 4 times each week. These presentations are intended by the various hosting companies to present their inside story to sophisticated parties and Investment Managers for the purpose of attracting funding, or of making parties more interested in acquiring shares of those companies. Being a part of this keeps Mr. Cyna deeply involved in the current market and leads to numerous investment opportunities.