Published Every Thursday
CymorStockPicks – Sell Medicago – Published Tuesday this week
This week’s Report was published on Tues as follows.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
We pick stocks will a nice upward lift in value potential, and these stocks can have a 10 Bagger potential.
Medicago is such a stock. We recommended it on February 21, 2013 @ $0.54. It has had a nice run, and it is time to take some profits. Sell today at $0.76.
We still like this stock and think it has large upward potential, but it is best to realize profits and then re-enter if the price moderates. Our original commentary when we recommended the stock follows.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Buy Medicago $0.53 (MDG on the TSX)
Medicago Inc (MDG)
This is a most interesting company. Normally we would hesitate in recommending a company that is involved in the creation of vaccines or bio sciences or the biotechnology sector. Inevitably these companies run into delays with the 3 phases of testing and approvals, and often what seems great promise, comes crashing down after years of work, and millions spent. The USA has a system of approvals where the large testing and trials do not occur until the last phase of the approval system. (Interestingly in Europe, the system is reversed.) What happens on a regular basis, is that enormous sums of money are raised and spent on the development, and as the process or drug goes through approval phases I & II, excitement and promise builds. As it does, the stock price also rises. Then phase III occurs and either it is a multi-year test, or some flaw occurs, and the stock either plummets or drifts downwards for years.
So we mention Medicago with some trepidation, but it has some quite unique attributes.
The Stock Price
The stock came out above $1.00 in 2006, and then plummeted like every other stock in the great crash of 2008. It recovered, like most other stocks, to the $0.70 range, which it touched in 2009 and also in 2011. It has generally drifted lower since, recovering just a bit recently. It is still modestly priced at its current level above $0.50. As the company is nearing its goal, most of the downside on the stock should be behind us.
A Unique Technology
We reprint the opening descriptive paragraph from the company’s website.
Medicago is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel vaccines and therapeutic proteins to address a broad range of infectious diseases worldwide. The Company is committed to providing highly effective and competitive vaccines and therapeutic proteins based on its proprietary Virus-Like Particles (VLPs) and manufacturing technologies. Medicago is a worldwide leader in the development of VLP vaccines using a transient expression system which produces recombinant vaccine antigens in plants. This technology has potential to offer more potent vaccines with speed and cost advantages over competitive technologies, enabling the development of a vaccine for testing in approximately one month after the identification and reception of genetic sequences from a pandemic strain. This production time frame has the potential to allow vaccination of the population before the first wave of a pandemic.
Tobacco Plants – Weird isn’t it?
In simpler terms, the company experimented with infiltrating plants with a DNA sequence to create an influenza vaccine. With the help of generous financial support from Philip Morris, the tobacco giant, the company now uses tobacco plants, grows them (they grow rapidly) to a certain stage, then immerses them in a DNA solution, then turns them upside down so that the plants suck up the DNA bearing solution, and voila, within weeks produces the essence of a flu vaccine. The process can take as little as 19 days.
Somewhat strange to believe, but it apparently works. The result is virus-like particles that the company claims can be mass produced to provide almost unlimited numbers of vaccine doses to combat any strain of the flu that is identified.
The advantages of this method are:
1) a much quicker response time to any influenza outbreak than other methods are able to meet
2) a much less expensive vaccine than is currently available
3) amazing potential from a natural base
Another product in development is that the company claims it can develop treatments for rabies which is a world-wide problem. Other products in the pipeline include non-influenza VLP’s and Biosimilars.
Company Facilities
Head office is in Québec City with rented premises of 16,000′ including a 7,000′ laboratory. Medicago also owns a 14,000′ pilot production facility which includes a greenhouse built to comply with cGMP standards, as well as an extraction/purification unit.
There Are Many Believers
The CEO is Mr Andy Sheldon who was voted “Best Virus CEO in the World”. Could it be that we will have yet another award show on US TV. I am amused as I ponder the possibilities of who the competitors on this show would be.
More seriously, the Management and Board of Medicago are quite impressive and include many highly regarded names in the field. The USA Network NBC did a clip on this company recently and has reported on Medicago a number of times. Likely this coverage was more the novelty of using tobacco plants to interest viewers than anything else, yet the company remains in the sights of the network.
Disruptive Technology
Every investor looks to find that company that will change the world in some way. Whether it be the “new” Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, or whatever, if you find an early stage company that has the potential to radically change the way humans act or perform or react, it could be a great investment. Most of these so-called disruptive technologies fail, but every once in a while, the world is changed. More and more companies are deciding that Medicago has the potential to be one of these great companies, and are entering into agreements with Medicago to participate in this potential. The potential may be realized, or may not, yet the list of involved participants continues to grow and is impressive.
Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation is a strategic partner and is funding the development at least three vaccines, first agreement for Rotavirus, an advance payment if C$33,000,000 as well as potential milestone payments for the first agreement, royalties on future sales, Mitsubishi to fund all development costs.
Mitsubishi Chemical has a strategic alliance with Medicago to evaluate potential of combining MC system with Medicago plant protein production technologies.
Philip Morris Products SA has a commercial agreement for influenza vaccines in China, US$12,000,000 in upfront and potential milestone payments, and royalties on future sales of pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines in China which utilize the Medicago technologies.
U.S. Department of Defense DARPA Award of US$21,000,000.
PATH grant for influenza studies by Medicago
Infectious Disease Research Institute research collaboration with Medicago on Phase I H5 with new adjuvant, intradermal.
In addition to the above, the company expects to announce yet another major agreement and funding shortly. So far the company says it has received a US $15,000,000 unsecured loan from a major Pharma with a view toward licensing.
Caution
The company has zero revenues from the sale of its products and does not expect to earn revenues until stage III trials are finished. A realistic expectation is revenue will commence in meaningful amounts in 2015, that is if all goes well.
Investment Opportunity
Given the range of impressive companies that either have bought into the story, or are considering some sort of arrangement, MDG seems as good a bet as one could find. The stock lows are hopefully behind us and the company looks forward to the short term commencement of commercial production.
We may or may not have positions in the securities we name. In making an investment decision numerous factors must be considered including portfolio balancing, timing, cash and capital reserves, asset allocation and other factors. Readers are strongly advised to do their own research. Matters discussed contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied.
Views expressed are opinions and not investment advice. Persons investing should retain a licensed professional to guide them and not rely on the opinions expressed herein. This report is neither a solicitation nor a recommendation to buy or sell securities. We are not a registered investment advisor nor a broker-dealer. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe reliable but is not guaranteed as being accurate or a complete statement or summary of the available data.
The Main Elements that are Wrong with our Economic System
I will divide my comments into parts, and will comment in due course on each of the parts. One blog is too brief to comment on all.
If the reader can stand away and look at the system from a distance, it becomes much clearer. I hope to provide some of that clarity by discussing the following points.
I will call these points MY CHECKLIST, and will [...] Continue Reading…
The Flavor of the Month – Deflation
Published Every Thursday
The Case For Deflation
There is a strong body of thought that we are headed for a period of deflation. According to Harry Dent, author of “The Great Crash Ahead”, “we are in the initial stages of a Primary Bear Market”. He points out this is evidenced by the long-term chart on the Dow. The fundamental reason for this, he explains, is the de-leveraging of the baby-boomer generation.
Dr. A. Gary Shilling wrote two [...] Continue Reading…
Cymor Stock Picks – Buy Facebook (FB)
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we publish our stock picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are sold.
Since inception in February 2013, our picks has provided a 35.75% return. See our record and statistics on “our Performance” page.
Buy FaceBook Inc (FB) Recommended Buy at $26
Facebook is an interesting story that everyone watches. Facebook is a phenomena that changed the world. Everyone knows Facebook. You can’t ignore Facebook. The best example of Facebook’s importance is an [...] Continue Reading…
Apple (AAPL) Has Had its Day
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we publish our stock picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are removed.
Apple Computer (AAPL) Has Had its day.
When Apple was at $676.00, we suggested buying Put Options. It seemed that several factors were in play and market exuberance was pushing Apple higher, without a supporting rationale. Apple eventually peaked a touch over $700, but then quickly returned to earth. That call made a lot of money.
Sell [...] Continue Reading…
Amazing Profit Potential
The Way to Buy Stocks
The stock market is a place to make and lose fortunes. Those more adventurous trade stocks with varying degrees of frequencies. They use trends, or signals, or technical analysis, or just guess and use their instinct as to whether a stock will rise or fall. The gain or loss is triggered when the stock is sold (if previously bought), or bought (if previously shorted).
Others invest because of long term value. [...] Continue Reading…
Why Gold Fell – The Pros Harvesting Cash from the Unsuspecting
Gold Plummets and Investors Suffer
Published below are gold charts reproduced from Kitco (http://www.kitco.com/charts/) on Thursday April 17, 2017.
What they clearly show is someone taking advantage of a market. Probably perfectly legal, but highly offensive to the average investor in the market.
What Really Happened
This is a story about someone watching the market, seeing an opportunity and using their great wealth to make enormous sums of money. If you are a gold bug, or an [...] Continue Reading…
A Tech Stock to Green the Earth
Cymor Stock Picks – Dynacert
By Larry Cyna | April 15, 2013
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we publish our stock picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are removed.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Buy Dynacert $0.14 (DYA on TSXV)
If you want to invest in GREEN technology, this is a company to watch. We started buying stock in this company several years ago, and have watched it stumble, recover and stumble again. The company now thinks it is [...] Continue Reading…
Gold Plummets – Beware of Stop Losses
GOLD PLUMMETS
I wrote a series on why the average investor should never use stop losses. Stop losses in theory protect you, but in reality, they are a way to ensure that with every severe drop in the market, stop losses are triggered and make a dramatic temporary loss, a permanent irrecoverable loss. Usually a steep drop is followed by a recovery of some amount. Triggering a stop loss removes this possibility.
Today, GOLD plummeted because [...] Continue Reading…
Cymor Stock Picks – Detour Gold Corporation
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we publish our stock picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are ‘sold’.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Buy Detour Gold $15.57 (DGC on TSX; DRGDF on OTC)
During the last 60 days, there has been a meltdown in the price of some outstanding resource companies. Detour Gold Corporation is such a company. DGC is producing gold, and is in position to become Canada’s largest operating gold mine. Its shares were trading in [...] Continue Reading…
Cymor Stock Picks – Sell eMini (ES)
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we publish our stock picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are removed.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Sell the E Mini S&P 500 (ES – CME) June 2013 $1,496.75 (or IYY ETF if you bought that). Both the ES and the IYY are inexpensive and easy ways to ride the wave up with DOW.
On February 2, 2013, we advised buying the ES June 2013. It enjoyed a very nice run up, [...] Continue Reading…
Junior Gold Stocks Raise Anxiety
Published Every Thursday
Junior Stocks Suffer Dramatic Value Losses
The Junior Resource Market has been in a frightening fall since the spring of 2012. Most charts look like the steep downward slope of a ski hill. Even the producing mines, or the established mineral deposit companies, or the producing energy companies show the same type of heart wrenching downward slope in their stock prices.
The senior resource stocks have not escaped this carnage either. Whether it be [...] Continue Reading…
The US Economy Surges Ahead While Cyprus is a Political Issue
CymorFund Stock Picks – What’s-Hot-or-Not
In February 2013, we started suggesting stocks that were undervalued and had a strong upside potential. Most of our early picks were in the junior resource sector, and in spite of a horrific downturn in this sector, we are proud that our picks in this very short time, have preformed very well indeed.
Whats-Hot-or-Not – Historical Picks
February 2, 2013 E Mini (ES – CME) June 2013 $1,496.75, or, IYY ETF [...] Continue Reading…
Cymor Stock Picks – EMED Mining (TSX)
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we publish our stock picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are removed.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Buy EMED Mining $0.175 (EMED on AIM; EMD on TSX)
EMED Mining is a European Mining story. It has various projects in Europe, but the flagship is a copper deposit in Spain. This is an old Rio Tinto producing mine in a very depressed area of Spain. The mine was nationalized by Franco in the [...] Continue Reading…
Cymor Stock Picks – Tethys Petroleum Limited-TSX
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we publish our picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are removed.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Buy Tethys Petroleum Limited $0.75 (TPL on the TSX)
Tethys Petroleum (TPL)
This is a company that is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, yet it has no operations in North America. Its operations are in three central Asian Countries:Kazakhstan, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan. It is an example of how the Toronto Stock Exchange and its junior exchange [...] Continue Reading…
The Dismal Future of Natural Gas Exports & Gas Liquefication – III
The Canadian Oil Sands
In our last article we discussed the dismal future of the Oil Sands and of the companies that extract oil from the Oil Sands. Because producers in the Oil Sands can’t get world prices for their oil, and can’t ship the oil in sufficient quantities to the USA, the newest schemes involve building pipelines to the West coast to be able to load tankers and ship the oil overseas, or to [...] Continue Reading…
The Changing Values of Energy Stocks – Be Safe or Be Sorry – Part II
The Changing Values of Energy Stocks – Be Safe or Be Sorry – Part II
In our previous blog, we discussed how energy companies have risen in importance to the investing public and how almost every portfolio has stocks of these natural gas and oil producers. We discussed how the price of energy rose after the Six Day War, but how the price/supply equation of natural gas has changed so radically in the past few [...] Continue Reading…
Energy Stocks Were Good Investments, but Not Now
A Mainstay of the Toronto Stock Exchange
Over the next blogs, we will trace how and why energy stocks were good investments, but how they now pose significant risk to investors. In this first piece we trace a bit of history. In the next we look at oil v natural gas, and then afterwards where these companies are now.
Investors in Canada often include energy stocks as a key part of their portfolio. After all, Canada [...] Continue Reading…
Cymor Stock Picks – Medicago-TSX
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we publish our stock picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are removed.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Buy Medicago $0.53 (MDG on the TSX)
Medicago Inc (MDG)
This is a most interesting company. Normally we would hesitate in recommending a company that is involved in the creation of vaccines or bio sciences or the biotechnology sector. Inevitably these companies run into delays with the 3 phases of testing and approvals, and often what [...] Continue Reading…
Gold returns to earth – Cymor cautioned its readers several times. How to React.
Gold
Today gold is trading slightly above $1,600 per ounce US$. In late 2011 it reached above $1,900 per ounce US$. It had a marvelous run, from $350 per ounce to $1,900 per ounce. Those that jumped on this train did very well indeed. It is now 1 1/2 years later.
Pundits everywhere were projecting $2,500 per ounce and $5,000 per ounce. Technical analysts everywhere were projecting a further bull market in gold. Yet the charts [...] Continue Reading…
Dealing WIth The Debt in Europe – Understanding the EU
The Current Dilemma
Greece continues its attempts at restructuring and civil unrest threatens, Spain’s unemployment continues to rise to unprecedented levels, and France is straining under labor unrest. An example of the struggle to squeeze every source for more revenue is a proposal in Hungary late last year
Hungary Solicits the Chinese?
European Union member Hungary’s legislators proposed the introduction of a passport aimed at well-heeled foreign investors. Proposed legislation listed on parliament’s web site would grant [...] Continue Reading…
Cymor Stock Picks – Scorpio Mining Corporation (SPM)
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Periodically we will publish our picks. Stocks that we like are “Hot” and listed below. Stocks not considered hot are removed.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Buy Scorpio Mining Corporation (SPM on the TSX)
Scorpio Mining Corporation (SPM)
This is a company that has had difficulties. Scorpio Mining is an exploration and mining company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with operations in central Mexico. It has a producing mine - the Nuestra Senora Mine – and a number of excellent prospects. [...] Continue Reading…
The Basis of Capitalism – Republicans & Libertarians
Libertarians are fiercely anti-government. They believe there should be no rules of commercial conduct and that every person should have the right to conduct themselves as he/she wishes. They believe that wrongful acts by anyone will result in actions by others to mitigate against those wrong acts. Just let people do what people do.
Republicans are fiercely anti-big government. They believe that a person’s individual rights supersede the powers of government and they believe that [...] Continue Reading…
Cymor Stock Picks – Dow Hits 14,000 – Buy ES eMini S&P 500
Whats-Hot-or-Not
We begin a new series today. Periodically we will publish our picks and track those picks.
Whats-Hot-or-Not
Buy the E Mini S&P 500 (ES – CME) June 2013 $1,496.75, or IYY ETF. They track the Dow which hit a historic high yesterday. Both the ES & the IYY are inexpensive and easy ways to ride the wave up with DOW.
We have long expressed the opinion that the US economy will pick up steam and is the [...] Continue Reading…
Irrational Investing – Behavioral Finance understood under Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
An Interesting Commentary on How Investment Decisions Are Made
The following is a reprint of an article that goes into some detail on how investment decisions are made. It seems appropriate today. It is a bit long and a bit wordy, but investors should always be better investors if they understand what prompts their own investment decisions.
The following piece makes one think about how their own investment decisions are made, and if you as [...] Continue Reading…
