Category Trends, Momentum & Market Cycles
An Over-Reaction to Current Debt Issues Those that are sophisticated enough and experienced enough, know that after every exuberance in an economic cycle, financial matters become so difficult that many come to the conclusion that “This Time It Is Different”. Analysts come to the conclusion that there is no escape from the inevitable and doom...
Advisers to Investing Readers will know that we often comment on the motivations of those that advise on where to invest, and what to invest in. They have their motivations and it is essential for investors to understand why your investment adviser recommends an investment and why a media pundit touts some stock or other....
The Panic Investment Cycle We have often repeated some basic principles of investing, including advising readers to recognize that every stock varies in price more as a result of emotion and other factors, than as a result of the company’s real business activities. The most important factor in buying or selling a security, is the...
Kyle Bass – the Bet Against Japan Kyle Bass founded hedge fund Hayman Capital in Dallas, Texas, in 2006. He made millions betting against the sub-prime mortgage bond market – and now he’s betting on the collapse of Japan. In simplistic terms, Mr Bass feels that the debt accumulated by Japan is so enormous, that...
Black Monday (October 19, 1987) Black Monday refers to Monday October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The...
Cheap energy is the key to productivity. Where the cost of energy is lower, productivity is greater. This is true worldwide. We begin by looking at energy costs and production in the USA. The Presidential Debate – Candidates Agree on Gas & Oil Last night the third and final debate between Romney and Obama took...
News Media have to Fill Space & Get Attention – Gloom & Doom Gets Attention In the midst of an overload of information, it is important to step back, silence the rhetoric and gain a wider perspective of the economy. CymorFund has frequently discussed how the economy has cycles of activity. Each cycle starts anew...
The Golden Dawn There is a right wing nationalistic party in Greece called the Golden Dawn. In the last election, it garnered about 6% of the votes. This compares to 2% in previous support. In spite of significant outrageous conduct by The Golden Dawn, support continues to increase rapidly for this party. Some say it...
Sept 24, 2012 The Telegraph Beijing hints at a bond attack on Japan A senior adviser to the Chinese government has called for an attack on the Japanese bond market to precipitate a funding crisis and bring the country to its knees, unless Tokyo reverses its decision to nationalize the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the...
How Politicians Can Cause Another Great Depression Our last blog referred to Milton Friedman’s caution about what caused the 1933 World Wide depression, and compared it to the debate being carried on now. This is a continuation of those comments. In his classic video from 1977, Milton Friedman delivers a 52-minute lecture at Utah State...