Irrational Investing – The Gamble of Buying Apple Computer Stock
Market Darlings That Disappoint There is a lot of talk currently about Apple Computers whose shares reached an astonishing $644 in April 2012. Today they trade at $585 which is a 9% drop in value. It is reminiscent somewhat of the painful share performance of Research in Motion (RIMM) which reached an equally astonishing $148 [...]
Caterpillar Cat Construction Equipment Sales in China Fade & The Price of Gold
Caterpillar Earnings Report April 12, 2012 Wall Street Journal Business Report 3:12 PM March sales of construction excavators in China look ugly, plunging 47% Y//Y to 23.3K units, with Caterpillar (CAT) sales off 51%. The numbers may not bode well for CAT Q1 earnings (report date 4/25), or the DJIA, over which the stock has [...]
Silver – The Versatile Metal – As its uses grow, so does demand for silver
I have previously advised that silver is a versatile metal and as its uses grow, so does demand for silver. Therefore the price of silver, because its demand is growing, will be sustainable. Below are some of the many uses of silver. Silver’s Use in the Transmission of Energy – Hydro There is an energy [...]
Some Education in the Way the Stock Market Works – Argentum & Soltoro
In the last blog, I suggested that the next topic would be the effect of shale gas on productivity and economic expansion in the USA, and prosperity in the Middle East and in third world oil producing countries. However, that blog is slightly delayed in order to discuss some current market issues. Why Stocks Sometimes [...]
The US Economy is Showing Strong Signs of Recovery
We Point Out the Obvious – The Next Economic Cycle is Starting We have repeatedly advised readers to look at the history of economic cycles since the dawn of the industrial revolution. There have been repeated cycles that all mirror each other, and as long as we are around, these cycles will continue. A Brief [...]
Gold and Gold Stocks – A Realistic View of the Price of Gold
The Price of Gold – Current Expectations There are many pundits that believe that gold will continue its relentless drive upward. Expectations range from a projection of $2,100 by December 31, 2012 to $5,000 per ounce. If one listens to these expectations, it sounds inevitable that gold will continue it’s rise to unprecedented heights. Comparison [...]
What to Expect in the Price of Gold. Stability, or perhaps Weakness.
Gold is in the $1,700 per oz range currently. There is a divided view on whether it will rise to $5,000 an ounce, or fall to $500 an ounce. The Fear and The Media The most widely held view over recent years, is that because Western societies have printed money (thanks to Alan Greenspan – [...]
Expect the Unexpected in the Stock Market
Relying on Your Investment Advisor One hires an Investment Advisor in the hope that such a person has devoted most of their waking efforts to analyzing the markets and determining how their clients should invest. In order to assist them in making these determinations, the firms that they work for, supposedly provide these individuals with [...]
China’s Underground Debt
The New Infrastructure in China When one sees the marvelous infrastructure developments in China, compared to the older and somewhat crumbling infrastructure in the Western world, one has to marvel. There are so many roads, railways, bridges, skyscrapers, malls, hotels, and so much more. It boggles the mind to see the vastness of all of [...]
Beware The Herd Mentality – The Only Sure Thing is a Lack of Surety – The Death Cross
It seems we are in a period of great uncertainty. Everywhere it seems there are signs of negativity. It seems the housing market is falling, European debt is getting out of control, debt continues to mount in the USA, and so on. The Death Cross A Death Cross is a technical indicator that is followed [...]
Take a Longer Perspective on the Stock Market Sell Off & The Fight Over Debt Reduction – a Very Good Thing
We at the Cymor Strategic Growth Funds urge caution in the face of the apparent current meltdown of the stock markets. This is the time of year, when almost annually and most certainly in the majority of years, the markets have weakness. Sometimes it is just a downward drifting, and sometimes it is more serious. [...]
Gold – the Rise in Value is Escalating, Caution is Warranted
We review many writers daily and it seems that everyone is predicting a further massive rise in the value of gold. The view seems to be almost universal. Mr Market Remember that when everyone is sure about some direction in the market, Mr. Market waits for his OPPORTUNITY to take everyone’s wealth away and teach [...]
Mutual Funds – The Profit Goes to the Managers, Not the Investors. Consider ETF’s
In a recent blog, I expressed the view that ETF’s were better investments than many mutual funds. A recent report on Mackenzie Financial Corp Canadian Shield Fund illustrates the point. Nat’l Post July 13, 2011 This fund started up late 2009 and raised more money subsequently totaling just under $200 million. The fund was seeking [...]
Investing Diversification is Reducing Risk – China Means Increasing Risk
Diversification in Your Portfolio A Supposed Truism – “Mitigate Risk by Investing in Different Sectors” We are constantly barraged with advice from our financial advisors insisting that the way to make money and to minimize risk, is to widen your scope of investing. We are constantly advised that having a percentage of your portfolio in [...]
How to Enrich Yourself
“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited , whereas imagination embraces the entire world, stimulating progress, giving birth to evolution.” – Albert Einstein (1879 – 1955) When the Market Shows Weakness We start with a famous quote from Albert Einstein. Normally people attribute the meaning of the quote to someone searching for [...]
Which Stocks to Invest In & How Important is the Risk Factor
Recent Weakness in Stock Prices If you read the newspapers, or if you look monthly at your portfolio statements, you will be aware that there has been quite a softening in the stock market. In particular, the stock price of banks, financial institutions and energy companies have somewhat softened. The price of juniors has also [...]
Investing in China – Is There any Risk?
“A gold mine is nothing more than a hole in the ground with a liar on top.” Mark Twain. Investing in China The Accuracy of Chinese Financial Reporting In the news this week, was an infamous short-seller accusing a Chinese company listed on the TSX of fraudulently mis-stating their assets and financial results. Muddy Waters [...]
Gold – Buy Junior Stocks? Some Stock Picks
Recent Mania for the metal Silver In the recent mania for silver, gold quite surprisingly has become almost forgotten. We have gotten used to the metal trading at $1,500 per oz, and it has become somewhat humdrum. Silver zoomed beyond reason, then plummeted as exchanges grew fearful of another meltdown and as a result raised [...]
The Debts of Nations and The Commodity Cycle
In the previous blog, I discussed the insoluble problem of worldwide debt. There are a number of issues in this topic that space prevented me from mentioning. Simply Arrest the Debt One of my contentions has been that simply arresting the rise in debt, and moderating expenditures by the National Governments would go a long [...]
The Commodity Cycle & the New York Hard Asset Show
The New York Hard Asset Show Each year I attend the New York Hard Asset show in early May. As the name suggests, it is a gathering of people that think investments in paper currency are less preferable than investments in hard assets. The gathering is a mix of Letter Writers trying to illustrate their [...]
The Scary World of 1984, Oil’s Inevitable Rise in Price & Why
Science Fiction Becomes Reality For those that read the quaint science fiction book “1984″, the scenario painted was an all-knowing invasive government that tracked every citizen’s movement, and forced all persons to adhere to a strict code of conduct that perpetuated the government. At the time the book was published, it was considered scary, but [...]
Buy Oil, Buy Commodities, Buy Value
I engaged in some commentary with US Republicans recently, who were adamant that the way out of their dilemma was draconian cuts in spending. They believed that if vested pensions couldn’t be honored, they shouldn’t be. They believed that if the State Government couldn’t meet its obligations, it shouldn’t. It should just pay for current [...]
New Economies & Transfer of Economic Power to China and India – The Unpredictability of Predictions
Loewen & Partners hosted a event last night in Toronto where Dr. Michael Power of Investec Asset Management gave a presentation. Dr. Power is a noted advisor to Hedge Funds and travels extensively giving presentations internationally to Hedge Fund managers and others. His presentations on current trends and matters of interest are widely followed and [...]
Think and Act Big. The Energy Crisis, Are junior Resource Stocks Safe?
Think and Act Big I was reading an article by Jim Carroll in his regular “Netwatch” column of April 2011. I will quote some of his comments. “We are in the era of Big Thinking, yet a lot of people have a small outlook.” “Pursue big math.” ”Think big in scope.” “Align strategies to the [...]
Cymor Strategic Growth Fund Philosophy; Gold – is there Value at these Levels?
The Cymor Strategic Growth Fund is a long hedge fund that invests primarily in value stocks. It is managed with the belief that the greatest absolute (real) returns are achieved by recognizing and buying stocks that are undervalued, that have limited downside, and have significant upside. We believe that good absolute returns can be achieved [...]
