Gold – Catching a Falling Knife Can Cut You Badly – New York Hard Asset Show
I recently attended the New York Hard Asset Show, which was quite interesting. There were many speakers and the viewpoints were quite divergent. The main theme was either a) all currencies were valueless because of printing money, of b) the USA is pulling out of the recession slowly and leave things be. An Analysis of [...]
Commodities & the Decline of the the TSXV – A Perspective
A Reprint of a View on the Commodities Market The following is reprinted from Pinnacle Digest. It is a perspective on how to view the current Junior Resources market. The message is that in this era of fear and uncertainty, a longer term perspective helps you understand the opportunities. Article Reprint from the Pinnacle Digest [...]
Sell in May & Go Away – How the Wisdom of the Ages is Time Sensitive
May 2, 2013 Sell in May and Go Away A tried and true investing maxim is “sell in May and go away.” Loosely translated, this means that in most years, the stock market has a seasonality to it that is quite reliable in predicting the rise and fall of the market. Essentially history has taught [...]
China & the World Economy – The End Of “Cheap” China
Firstly let me apologize to my readers for the slight absence in publishing. China and the World Economy Have you noticed that figures coming out of China show a trend that varies with conventional wisdom. Inflation in China is a force that the Chinese government mentions and tries to combat. You don’t hear about that [...]
Seasonality and the Stumbling Stock Market
The Stock Market is Stumbling Today There has been somewhat of a meltdown in the markets this week. Both yesterday and today, saw major losses in the TSXV and in commodities. A wave of gloom and doom is spreading across the industry. The Seasonality of the Market Most securities professionals understand that historical trends have [...]
A Hindsight View of Opinions Expressed in this Blog
Weakness in China Someone sent a note to me about China, in which they pointed out current weakness in China, fear of housing deflation, and some other weaknesses. They then complimented me on publishing Blogs long ago on the coming troubles in China, on the massive undisclosed debts of state-owned enterprises, and the inefficiencies in [...]
U.S. report: Oil imports down, domestic production highest since 2003
In recent blogs, I talked about whether the common belief that oil prices have to increase could be a fallacy. The following is today’s reprint of an article in the Los Angeles Times. It seems that the world of imported oil and high prices may be about to change. U.S. report: Oil imports down, domestic [...]
Is Oil Overvalued? Could the USA become Energy Sufficient?
The Amount of Oil Used by North America In a recent blog, I talked about how shale gas is changing North America’s energy needs, and how that could change the way that the world works. The effect is starting to be felt. A quote from “MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis” Another Plunge in 3-Month Rolling [...]
The Rapid Changing World of Investments – the Flow of Oil Money to the Middle East
The Changing World of Investment In my last blog, I talked about how rapidly investments can change in scope and importance. I talked about the bountiful supply of shale gas coming on stream, and the profits of large equipment manufacturers. The essential point was that investors could never simply “Buy and Hold”, but had to [...]
How To Take Advantage of the Next Economic Cycle – Copper & Silver
Commodities and Precious Metals Recently, I discussed how the next economic cycle is now starting. A feature of this new cycle is the remarkable need in the world for base metal and for precious metals. I discussed how the ‘doom and gloom’ crowd was urging people to buy precious metals to save themselves from the [...]
The US Economy is Showing Strong Signs of Recovery
We Point Out the Obvious – The Next Economic Cycle is Starting We have repeatedly advised readers to look at the history of economic cycles since the dawn of the industrial revolution. There have been repeated cycles that all mirror each other, and as long as we are around, these cycles will continue. A Brief [...]
You Can’t Solve a Debt Crisis with More Debt – or Can You?
How to Deal With Overwhelming Debt We have written a number of times of how Canada solved it’s debt crisis which it incurred through successive Liberal Party excesses. It simply adjusted its spending so that the increase in expenditures continued, but at a lessor rate. Then as the US and Japan, and then Korea and [...]
Political Correctness – Dealing with the Barney Frank’s of Finance (Cont’d)
Continued from Blogs of January 26 & 29, 2012 Dealing with the debt problem means firstly understanding the economic powerhouse that is the USA. The US $ remains the world’s currency and is accepted universally. Fixing the US $ is PRIORITY #1. In the previous blogs, we discussed – Bringing government expenditures under control – [...]
The Attractiveness of Gold Investments & Analysts’ Projections
The Attractiveness of Gold In a recent blog, I suggested that patience and technical indicators were key in buying gold. I suggested that the moment had not yet arrived to make this investment again. This week there were announcements from Bankers in parts of the world that they were adding to their gold purchases. Bankers [...]
Where is the Price of Gold Going?
The Volatility of Gold Some months ago we cautioned readers that investing in gold at that time was quite a risky thing to do, as it was an even bet as to where gold would head. We suggested that the reader could flip a coin as to whether to invest or not and strongly urged [...]
Economic News Continues Positive
Golden Cross Technical Analysts rely on historical comparisons to determine their view of what the Charts Say. One of the strongest indicators watched is when Moving Averages (MA) cross each other. A shorter term moving average crossing a longer term moving average is considered a strong indicator. A Golden Cross is when a 50 day [...]
New Jobs Improvement Data in US “Stunning”
The Financial Post today reports that US private sector hiring surged in December as employers added 325,000 new workers, while claims for jobless benefits fell. This come from the ADP National Employment Report. As a comparison, in November 2012, 204,000 private jobs were created. “The number is stunning” quote by Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst [...]
A New Year – 2012 The USA Remains the Dominant Economic Force in the World
A Happy New Year to Readers Reflections Over the Holidays The end of a year and the start of the next is an annual time for reflection and catching up on reading. The economic downturn has had some dramatic negative effects on many people, but what becomes apparent upon reflection is the similarity in some [...]
The Future of the Stock Market & Some Stock Picks
Fear Of Where the Stock Market is Headed Today, there is much fear. Many pundits over the last 3 years have prophesied the DOW falling to a fraction of its current level. We hear figures quoted for the DJIA of as low as 5,600 from its current levels of 11,000+. There are proponents of Wave [...]
Beware The Herd Mentality – The Only Sure Thing is a Lack of Surety – The Death Cross
It seems we are in a period of great uncertainty. Everywhere it seems there are signs of negativity. It seems the housing market is falling, European debt is getting out of control, debt continues to mount in the USA, and so on. The Death Cross A Death Cross is a technical indicator that is followed [...]
Take a Longer Perspective on the Stock Market Sell Off & The Fight Over Debt Reduction – a Very Good Thing
We at the Cymor Strategic Growth Funds urge caution in the face of the apparent current meltdown of the stock markets. This is the time of year, when almost annually and most certainly in the majority of years, the markets have weakness. Sometimes it is just a downward drifting, and sometimes it is more serious. [...]
How Debt is Resolved – The Coming Boom in the Stock Market
Characterizing Debt Whether it be the USA, or Greece, or Ireland, or Italy, debt is never repaid in short order. The trick is to stabilize the debt and essentially make it appear as a non-issue, What happens is that the political will in a country changes from an attitude of “if there is a need, [...]
Are we Heading for a Downturn – A Contrarian View
A reader took issue with my optimistic view of the current world economy. Essentially my view is that we are in a long but sustaining recovery, that will continue despite bumps in the road. A Contrarian View The reader’s view was that what we are seeing was the effects of the massive injection of government [...]
The China Conundrum – How it Could Affect the Commodity Cycle
My last two blogs mentioned the unknowns regarding China. It seems that I am not the only one thinking along those lines. In the newspapers last weekend, there were columns devoted to China. The Issue Everyone assumes that China is the key driving force in the world regarding commodity demand, import / export transactions, currency [...]
Capitalism Needs Tweaking–Point #7 of 10 Self Insurance & Investor Safety
Will America Recover? Of Course ! I have long maintained that the inherent strengths of American and Western societies would prevail in the long run, and that we are currently in the trough leading to the next big wave of prosperity. The rights of property law, the basic belief in the freedom of the individual, [...]
