Debt & the Deficit
« Previous EntriesGold returns to earth – Cymor cautioned its readers several times. How to React.
Gold Today gold is trading slightly above $1,600 per ounce US$. In late 2011 it reached above $1,900 per ounce US$. It had a marvelous run, from $350 per ounce to $1,900 per ounce. Those that jumped on this train did very well indeed. It is now 1 1/2 years later. Pundits everywhere were projecting [...]
Dealing WIth The Debt in Europe – Understanding the EU
The Current Dilemma Greece continues its attempts at restructuring and civil unrest threatens, Spain’s unemployment continues to rise to unprecedented levels, and France is straining under labor unrest. An example of the struggle to squeeze every source for more revenue is a proposal in Hungary late last year Hungary Solicits the Chinese? European Union member [...]
The Basis of Capitalism – Republicans & Libertarians
Libertarians are fiercely anti-government. They believe there should be no rules of commercial conduct and that every person should have the right to conduct themselves as he/she wishes. They believe that wrongful acts by anyone will result in actions by others to mitigate against those wrong acts. Just let people do what people do. Republicans [...]
The Fiscal Cliff Doesn’t Reduce Pork Barrel Projects
Today we reprint portions of a column from John Mauldin, How To Benefit From The Fiscal Cliff Pork Barrels By John Mauldin | January 17, 2013 In all of the emotional wrangling over the Fiscal Cliff, politicians may posture in front of the microphones, but behind the scenes, they calmly go about their business of [...]
Prosperity in 2013
We have often remarked on how the USA will lead the recovery and that the next economic cycle will make its way through the doom and gloom in today’s market. We now have visible evidence that this is starting to happen. European Debt Crisis Pundits continue to insist that the EU (European Economic Union) must [...]
Fiscal Cliff Nonsense Abates and Economy Continues to Improve
A Sense of Drama Stuck between a hard place and a rock, the Republicans finally relented and an agreement concerning the Fiscal Cliff was reached. The issue seems to have been a holdover from the sudden rise of the Tea Party, which during the last administration promoted a nonsensical pledge among Republicans to never agree [...]
Sending US Dollars Overseas
In a recent book titled “The Next Decade” by George Friedman, Mr. Friedman makes the point that the US remains the world economic power with 25% of the world economic production. His contention is that the US President must exert that power in many ways, always mindful that the USA is the world’s economic powerhouse. [...]
The Financial System’s Death Knell? Or an Over-Reaction?
An Over-Reaction to Current Debt Issues Those that are sophisticated enough and experienced enough, know that after every exuberance in an economic cycle, financial matters become so difficult that many come to the conclusion that “This Time It Is Different”. Analysts come to the conclusion that there is no escape from the inevitable and doom [...]
How False Economic Signals Confuse Investors
Employment Numbers are Still Difficult U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: U.S. Unemployment rises slightly to 7.9 Percent in October, U.S. total non-farm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent and the number of unemployed persons (12.3 million) were essentially unchanged in October, following declines in [...]
Irrational Exuberance – the thinking of financial analyst Jeremy Grantham
Advisers to Investing Readers will know that we often comment on the motivations of those that advise on where to invest, and what to invest in. They have their motivations and it is essential for investors to understand why your investment adviser recommends an investment and why a media pundit touts some stock or other. [...]
The Panic Investing Cycle – How to Make Money in the Stock Market
The Panic Investment Cycle We have often repeated some basic principles of investing, including advising readers to recognize that every stock varies in price more as a result of emotion and other factors, than as a result of the company’s real business activities. The most important factor in buying or selling a security, is the [...]
The Great Rotation – What Happens When the Fiscal Cliff is Resolved
The Fiscal Cliff Approaches With the US election now over, the Tea Party smacked down, and the Republicans licking their wounds, attention has shifted to the Fiscal Cliff. Should the politicians not reach agreement, a prearranged penalty system kicks in with large income tax rate increases and large expenditure cuts. Sort of a massive bluff [...]
Commentary on the Price of Gold – Buyer Beware
Will Gold Reach $2,500 an Ounce Common wisdom is a belief that gold is poised to rise in value, and that you had better buy gold for your security. Advertisements heard regularly on US and Canadian radio advertise how to buy gold for your portfolio. Gold Funds and Silver Funds, Gold and Silver ETF’s and [...]
Expect the Unexpected – Similarities between Japan and the US Presidential Race
Kyle Bass – the Bet Against Japan Kyle Bass founded hedge fund Hayman Capital in Dallas, Texas, in 2006. He made millions betting against the sub-prime mortgage bond market – and now he’s betting on the collapse of Japan. In simplistic terms, Mr Bass feels that the debt accumulated by Japan is so enormous, that [...]
Productivity in the USA is Increasing – Dramatically
Cheap energy is the key to productivity. Where the cost of energy is lower, productivity is greater. This is true worldwide. We begin by looking at energy costs and production in the USA. The Presidential Debate – Candidates Agree on Gas & Oil Last night the third and final debate between Romney and Obama took [...]
USA Leads the Way in World Recovery – here’s why !
News Media have to Fill Space & Get Attention – Gloom & Doom Gets Attention In the midst of an overload of information, it is important to step back, silence the rhetoric and gain a wider perspective of the economy. CymorFund has frequently discussed how the economy has cycles of activity. Each cycle starts anew [...]
Income Tax Havens
Are Income Tax Havens a Good Thing The real negative effects of tax havens are not that paying taxes in the US are avoided. The real issue is that US policy is driving US $$$ away from the US. When money is put in a tax haven to avoid taxes, that money stays offshore. It [...]
The Golden Dawn in Greece – Making People Suffer has Predictable Results
The Golden Dawn There is a right wing nationalistic party in Greece called the Golden Dawn. In the last election, it garnered about 6% of the votes. This compares to 2% in previous support. In spite of significant outrageous conduct by The Golden Dawn, support continues to increase rapidly for this party. Some say it [...]
The Future Price of Gold – The Golden Dilemma
A recent research paper by Erb & Harvey, Duke University – Fuqua School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), revised August 3, 2012 is titled The Golden Dilemma In this paper, many of the ‘street’s’ beliefs in gold are examined in a detailed and historical context. The paper is too lengthy for this [...]
Politics and Economics are Never Far Apart – The Strength of the USA Economy
Sept 24, 2012 The Telegraph Beijing hints at a bond attack on Japan A senior adviser to the Chinese government has called for an attack on the Japanese bond market to precipitate a funding crisis and bring the country to its knees, unless Tokyo reverses its decision to nationalize the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the [...]
Milton Friedman Video From 1977 – Part II – The Hidden Cost that Hurts Us.
How Politicians Can Cause Another Great Depression Our last blog referred to Milton Friedman’s caution about what caused the 1933 World Wide depression, and compared it to the debate being carried on now. This is a continuation of those comments. In his classic video from 1977, Milton Friedman delivers a 52-minute lecture at Utah State [...]
Milton Friedman – How Politicians Can Cause Another Great Depression
The US Debate over Quantitative Easing We have an interesting debate going on in the US Presidential campaign. On one side are people claiming that government handouts are ruining America and the government must immediately stop incurring debt, and go to a balanced budget. On the other other side are people claiming that the economy [...]
Optimism Returns – Economic Doom & Gloom is Lessening
The Negative Daily News Daily we are bombarded with news of European Debt Crises, of China Slowdowns, of USA housing and job numbers. Everything seems so negative. Yet when one takes a larger view of what is happening around us, it is obvious that the next cycle is starting, and we are pulling out of [...]
The Price of Gold Has Broken Out
Gold’s Amazing Run to $1,900 In August 2011, gold broke out to new highs of over $1,900 per ounce. What a ride from November 2008 when gold rose from above $700 to August 2011 with gold at $1,900. Gold remained in an unbroken channel moving ever higher, until near the end of its run, it [...]
The Resurgence of Reason in USA Politics
As an observer of the current USA Presidential election, while listening to the rhetoric from the Democratic and Republican camps, certain encompassing observations are inescapable. The Move Towards the Center The rhetoric of the Tea Party has moved the Republicans to the right – seemingly. In fact a fiscal ‘conservative’, U.S. Congressman Paul Ryan, has [...]
