Monthly December, 2011

China’s Debt – The Next Big Shock. The USA remains the economic engine of the World

The Off-Balance Sheet Financing in China Recently we discussed the enormous debt of government controlled Investment Corporations in China, and we warned that this debt, combined with other government debt in China, was approaching 87% of GNP. This is an astounding figure, unmatched in recent history. Comparisons to other nations’ growth in recent years reveal...

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Central Banks Join Demand for Gold – While the Price of Gold Weakens

Gold – The Great Gamble In two recent blogs, we warned readers that buying gold at this point in time was a large gamble, and was against the instincts that investors should have. In each case, we speculated that weakness in the price of gold was probable, although not definite. In the current world wide...

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A Look at Poor Returns from Large Cap Fund Managers

In this blog, we quote part of the December 2011 newsletter from Absolute Return Partners LLP. In their newsletter they review reports on the performance of Fund Managers from many countries, and conclude that for the most part, even the most famous fund managers, over a sustained period, are not worth investing with. Our view...

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What to Expect in the Price of Gold. Stability, or perhaps Weakness.

Gold is in the $1,700 per oz range currently. There is a divided view on whether it will rise to $5,000 an ounce, or fall to $500 an ounce. The Fear and The Media The most widely held view over recent years, is that because Western societies have printed money (thanks to Alan Greenspan –...

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The US Debt Crisis v European Debt. An optimistic view

The Uncertainty in the US v Europe We hear daily about the crisis faced in the world markets as a result of the 27 European nations failing to reach an accord in how to debt with overwhelming debt levels in many member states. So much so that the failure of the Super Committee in the...

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Follow up – China’s Building Boom and the Debt Of State Owned Investment Corporations

China’s Building Boom May be Coming to Earth Nov 2011 (Reuters) – The monumental, neo-Mongolian sculptures, empty plazas and hulking concrete shells of buildings in Ordos district, deep in the steppes of Inner Mongolia, are a potent symbol of how China’s property boom can turn to bust. Off the back of a thriving coal industry,...

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